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by Rebecca Petz

Elections represent a critical moment in societies with increased potential for conflict. The pandemic has also exacerbated a number of factors that can lead to uncertainty and increased risks in elections. This is explained in more detail in the following article using the example of the presidential elections in C么te d'Ivoire.

Elections are part of everyday political life in democracies and have great potential. Potential for peace and potential for violence. In the context of peacebuilding, they are often described as an essential step towards establishing security and stability. At the same time, however, they are often associated with outbreaks of violence and represent a fragile moment in societies. With a focus on sub-Saharan Africa, Oduro (2021) outlines four factors that can contribute to increasing the potential for conflict in electoral contexts, namely: the "winner takes it all"principle, weak electoral institutions, a lack of opportunities for voter registration and non-transparent election preparations (see also Straus and Taylor 2017).

The pandemic in particular has exacerbated the four factors mentioned above, thereby increasing the potential for conflict in elections. This was clearly evident in West Africa last year. In Togo, as in Ghana, Guinea, Burkina Faso and C么te d'Ivoire, the legitimacy of the election results was called into question by the opposition. This led either to court cases (e.g. ) or to protests by the population (e.g. ). In many cases, criticism of the election results and doubts about the legality of the results persisted and are still present on social media. This division in society and the perception of injustice in political processes can be the starting point for (further) conflicts. Elections with controversial outcomes therefore have great potential for conflict and can lead to violent clashes. At the same time, the pandemic brings with it new challenges that can contribute to a decline in awareness of electoral processes and in critical and active support for them. Conflicts over elections are in danger of being forgotten by the international community.

In the following, I would like to take a closer look at the case of C么te d'Ivoire and explain how the pandemic conditions have intensified the conflict factors of the electoral process.

Contested election results in C么te d'Ivoire

The results of the presidential elections in C么te d'Ivoire in October 2020 remain controversial to this day. Even before the election, there were violent protests and clashes with state forces, partly because the opposition had called for a boycott. The reason for the was an amendment to the constitution, which allowed President Guillaume Ouattara to run for a third term in office. With 94% of the vote, Ouattara was officially declared the new president by the electoral commission after the election. In protest against this result, the opposition parties initiated a so-called "transitional government" to organize new elections quickly. The re-elected president then initiated the , including former President Henry B茅di茅. While President Ouattara invited the opposition to an "honest and trusting dialogue" via Twitter (Alassane [AOuattara_PRCI] 17.11.2020), .

COVID - 19 as a conflict amplifier

The elections in C么te d'Ivoire took place in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic and were strongly influenced by the resulting conditions. At the time of the elections on October 30, 2020, the country reported a total of , according to the WHO. In April 2020, the government responded by declaring a state of emergency. Among other things, a night-time lockdown and the closure of public facilities and places were decided. This was followed by a ban on demonstrations. In the meantime, Abidjan, the capital of C么te d'Ivoire, was declared an in and out of the city was only possible with a negative Covid-19 test. In addition, the government used the state of emergency to make changes to the electoral law. These included a reform of voter registration by place of residence (Decree no. 2020-351, 23 March 2020). The main criticism here was that the north of C么te d'Ivoire could be favored and the were made the opposition and closer to the elections.

These circumstances created by the pandemic influenced the course of the electoral process and reinforced factors that potentially increase the conflict potential of elections. This is illustrated below using the points explained by Oduro (2021): The principle of "The Winner Takes it all" refers to the fact that after losing an election, presidents often lose not only political influence, but also funds and assets. The economic situation in C么te d'Ivoire has also deteriorated as a result of the pandemic. fell from 6.9% in 2019 to 1.8% in 2020. This may increase the desire of political actors to remain in power (Oduro 2021, 168).

Secondly, the pandemic situation is weakening theelectoral institutions. In C么te d'Ivoire, elections are accompanied by an independent electoral commission. For a long time, however, this was criticized for excluding civil society. It was only after a ruling by the African Court of Human Rights in 2018 that civil society became more involved in the electoral commission. However, the debate about the , which is perceived as biased and politicized, continued. Various dialog platforms between civil society and politics therefore play an important role in the preparation of elections in C么te d'Ivoire and the attempt to strengthen confidence in their implementation. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has severely restricted these spaces for dialog. During the state of emergency, large gatherings were prohibited, making meetings between civil society and political actors more difficult. On the one hand, this made it more difficult for civil society to fulfill its monitoring function vis-脿-vis politicians and, on the other hand, led to a loss of trust in the dialogue processes on the part of NGOs.

Thirdly, the period leading up to the election should ideally contribute to a fair election campaign, enabling a flow of information and making the parties' structures and procedures transparent. This is partly determined by the financial resources available to the parties for the election campaign and the space they are given in public (Oduro 2021). During the pandemic, many civilian forces and public attention focused on the exceptional situation and related health issues. This also made it possible to amend the electoral law in March 2020, which was initiated without consulting civil society. As a result, mistrust of political institutions continued to grow. In addition, Covid-19 has restricted freedom of assembly in the run-up to the elections. During election campaigns, information is passed on at public gatherings and events in particular, and opposition politicians are also introduced. The criticized that the pandemic situation had been instrumentalized to ban their events.

Fourthly, voter registration errors in contexts such as C么te d'Ivoire can easily be exploited to delegitimize election results (Oduro 2021, 170). Presidential candidates who have lost the election have repeatedly resorted to this, as did Gbagbo in C么te d脤voire in 2010 (Nyong'o 2017, p. 213). This risk is increased by the fact that registration processes were only possible to a limited extent under Covid-19. In C么te d'Ivoire, registration has so far mostly taken place in person. However, this requires a high degree of interpersonal interaction and therefore poses a potential risk for the spread of the infectious disease. The registration processes were adapted to the pandemic situation, but this ultimately led to being registered in C么te d'Ivoire the targeted six million.

Fifthly, Covid-19 , which in turn had an impact on election observation. There were fewer election observers on the ground and so local observers were increasingly used. Particularly in countries such as C么te d'Ivoire, where many people do not have sufficient confidence in the legitimate counting of votes or where there was repeated unrest before the election, election observation is essential in order to create a sense of security and to be able to evaluate the processes transparently and objectively afterwards.

Election processes: Forgotten in the pandemic

The factors discussed show how the pandemic situation can intensify doubts about election results and thus increase the potential for conflict. At the beginning, I mentioned the central importance of elections for peace processes and the stabilization of a country's security on the one hand and the fragility of nations at the moment of the election on the other. As shown, the existing risk factors - "The Winner Takes it all", poor electoral institutions, inadequate registration processes and lack of transparency in C么te d'Ivoire are exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. This may also have an impact on regional stability in the medium term.

Crises in the region, such as armed Islamist groups in the Sahel zone, stagnating economic developments and social tensions in the individual countries can only be tackled decisively if the population trusts its own government and views it as legitimate. The stability of the West African region is also of great interest to the international community. The UN has repeatedly become active in the region to intervene in violent conflicts, such as UNOCI in C么te d'Ivoire from 2004-2017.

Due to Covid-19, there is a risk that support for electoral processes will slip off the global agenda and not be prioritized in international cooperation, as well as in the priorities of the African Union or ECOWAS. In line with the importance for peace and conflict outlined here and the increased precariousness of the situation in which they take place during the pandemic, elections should be given more prominence and receive more attention and support, especially in a time of greater resistance. The results of elections in West African countries, for example, are often only a side note in German newspapers, but their impact can be great and contribute to the stabilization or destabilization of an entire region.